Pyroconvection in real-time wildfire analysis: the Serra da Estrela fire

Georgios Papavasileiou brought the National Observatory of Athens’ fire weather methods to Portugal’s wildfire decision support cell, analysing the pyroconvective stage of the 2022 Serra da Estrela fire.

From 5 to 13 August 2024, Dr Georgios Papavasileiou, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Observatory of Athens, carried out a Short-Term Scientific Mission (STSM) at Portugal’s National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (ANEPC), in collaboration with the School of Agriculture of the University of Lisbon.

In the decision support cell

The mission included:

  • national and international briefings, including the European Commission’s DG ECHO wildfire meeting
  • the daily analysis routine of the National Wildfire Decision Support Cell, with a focus on available fire weather information
  • wildfire analysis procedures, data, tools and models used for preparedness and real-time analysis
  • discussions on improving fire weather intelligence, and on how to communicate the potential for pyroconvection within the unit

The Serra da Estrela fire

Real-time testing of pyroconvection diagnostics on high-resolution weather forecasts was not possible due to data availability. Instead, Georgios used reanalysis data to apply methods of NOA’s FLAME fire weather team to the 2022 Serra da Estrela fire, focusing on how fire weather drove a shift from wind-driven to plume-dominated behaviour during its pyroconvective stage.

Serra da Estrela fire progression, August 2022. Data courtesy of Akli Benali.
Serra da Estrela fire progression, August 2022. Data courtesy of Akli Benali.
Satellite images of the Serra da Estrela fire on 7 and 10 August 2022. Data courtesy of NASA.
Satellite images of the Serra da Estrela fire on 7 and 10 August 2022. Data courtesy of NASA.

Next steps

The work will be extended using the Portuguese wildfire spread database and linked to NERO Working Group 2’s analysis of extreme fire behaviour processes. With ANEPC and other NERO members, Georgios is also exploring better ways to communicate pyroconvection potential to fire managers, bridging research and practice.

At the Portuguese National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority.
At the Portuguese National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority.

About the grant

GranteeGeorgios Papavasileiou
Home institutionNational Observatory of Athens (NOA), Greece
HostSchool of Agriculture (ISA), University of Lisbon, and the National Wildfire Decision Support Cell (ANEPC), Portugal
Dates5–13 August 2024
Grant typeShort-Term Scientific Mission

This grant was funded by COST Action CA22164 – European Network on Extreme Fire Behaviour (NERO), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

COST

COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) is a funding agency for research and innovation networks. Our Actions help connect research initiatives across Europe and enable scientists to grow their ideas by sharing them with their peers. This boosts their research, career and innovation.

Visit COST at www.cost.eu

Action Details

Action Chair: Dr. Theodore M. Giannaros
Action Vice Chair: Dr. Akli Benali
Start Date: 17 October 2024
End date: 16 October 2027
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